Kevin Roberts: 5 Elite Fantasy Players I’m Avoiding
With every new fantasy football season come rankings, player profiles, and mock drafts. Loads of research gets piled on to assess each player, where they rank, and how they project for the coming season. However, sometimes all of that research can’t prepare you for what is going to happen. Sometimes your gut is the only thing that can call it the right way the first time.
Even though the previous season’s stats will sway so many others differently, sometimes you just have to listen to your own immediate reaction when analyzing all of your draft options.
I’ve found 5 fantasy players that are ranked among the top 100 that I will do my best to stay away from when I draft this year. Here they are, along with my reasoning:
1. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
I get it. Vick was Comeback Player of the Year. He made the Eagles near-title contenders. And he’s firmly planted himself back into fantasy football relevancy. On top of that, he’s single-handedly changed the Eagles future at quarterback, and that accuracy and pocket presence we always griped about not being there, well, is suddenly there.
But this is still Vick we’re talking about. This is just one year of not being a one-dimensional running quarterback that has a cannon arm. You can’t help but love his offense, his weapons, and his ability to kill you with his arm and his legs. But what if 2010 was a fluke? What if history repeats itself and Vick goes down with an injury? If I’m taking a quarterback early, I’ll feel a lot better rolling with guys like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Peyton Manning – guys that have done it consistently for years, rather than a guy who has returned to glory for one.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ll be the first to say I love MJD, and I hope he has a great 2011. Heck, I drafted him with my top pick in last year’s fantasy draft, and despite a weak start, I was rewarded with an awesome six-game run of 100+ yard games. As great as that was, MJD’s absence from the final two games of the year was quite the disappointment during my fantasy team’s playoff run.
On top of that, he didn’t do me many favors at the beginning of the year, and his lack of touchdowns hurt my team on a weekly basis.
However, the big thing with MJD is how his knees hold up. He had knee issues leading into the season, started slow, and then had his season cut short in the final weeks due to knee problems once again. Reports are encouraging about the health of his knee, but I’m still skeptical. With the effective Rashad Jenning waiting in the wings, I’m being very cautious with how I value Jones-Drew this year. I won’t laugh at you for drafting him, but if I have an option that is on his same level, I’m taking it and avoiding the risk.
3. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
McFadden was a major disappointment and bust candidate until he found a way to break-out in 2010. With Michael Bush possibly on his way out via free agency, McFadden could have a huge load to look forward to in 2011. Things could be looking up, sure, but what about the fact that this guy has just one year of real production under his belt?
Add this equation, and see if you like the answer: Darren McFadden + One Year of Production + Extra Work Load + Injury History + Playing For Oakland Raiders = I don’t really want to find out.
McFadden could easily be entering his second amazing season of what turns out to be a stellar career, but there are enough risk signs to make me pick someone else.
4. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos
Personally, I think Moreno is a fine talent and can be a feature back in Denver. However, he’s playing for John Fox now, and that almost certainly means another back coming in and stealing carries in a two-back system.
My guess is DeAngelo Williams is on Denver’s radar, and if he is, those “Moreno is a third-down back) whispers could become a reality.
Even if Moreno is the full-fledged starter again in 2011, you still have to realize his lack of elite production through two seasons as the starter, while realizing he may be playing with a rookie-esque passer in Tim Tebow. There is still the potential there for Moreno to break-out and be the guy everyone thinks he can be in his third season, but I’m weary of taking that chance on him.
5. Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos
We need a wide receiver for this “stay away” group, and who better than the 2010 NFL receiving yardage leader? Part of me wants to give high praise for Lloyd finally realizing his big-play potential, but the realistic side of me has already bought into the notion that there is no way Lloyd ever has a season like he had last year again.
I don’t just mean in 2011 or for the rest of his career. I’m talking separate dimensions and alternate universes. The guy is good, but last season was insane. That will never happen again. Not only that, but he’s no longer in a pass-happy Josh McDaniels offense. McDaniels is gone, John Fox likes to run the ball, and Tim Tebow may be the starting quarterback this year.
I actually like Tebow and think he’ll do fine, but he’s still basically a rookie, and this offense will not be reliant on airing it out so Brandon Lloyd can meet his quota. He can still make big plays and be a solid WR3 if everything works out, but that WR1 status will diminish over the course of the season. At least, the reality and likelihood of that happening will keep me from putting him on my squad.
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Kevin Roberts | 5 Elite Fantasy Players I’m Avoiding In 2011 - Gridiron Experts